Raila Catches up With Ruto and Beats him with double-digit margin-Radio Africa Polls

ODM leader Raila Odinga appears to have overtaken Deputy President William Ruto in the presidential contest, according to the latest monthly Radio Africa opinion poll.

According to the poll, 47.4 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Raila as president if elections were held today, compared to Ruto’s 43.4 per cent.

Support for Raila as the next president jumped from 35.1 per cent in February to 47.4 per cent in March, a jump of 12.3 per cent.

Support for Ruto dropped from 47.4 per cent in February to 43.4 per cent in March.

The poll conducted and financed by Radio Africa Group surveyed 3,152 respondents between  March 7 and 11 by computer-assisted telephone interviewing (CATI) across all 47 counties. It carries a 1.75 per cent margin of error.

Poll ratings can go up and down so Radio Africa will continue to conduct its monthly opinion polls up to the August 9 elections.

This is the first time in two years that Raila has outperformed the Deputy President.

In February, days before President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Sagana 3 meeting where he endorsed Raila, the last Radio Africa poll gave Ruto a 12 point lead over the ODM leader. Ruto had 47.1 per cent support against Raila’s 35.1 per cent. Presidential poll
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In recent months Raila has been closing the gap on Ruto in the opinion polls as government has thrown its weight behind him to ensure he gets elected in the August 9 presidential election.

In July last year, the Radio Africa poll showed Ruto comfortably leading Raila with 42.7 per cent against 14.2 per cent support.

According to the new poll, no other presidential candidate will get a significant chunk of the vote. Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka, who  joined Raila at the weekend, would only get 1.9 per cent of the votes, while the rest of the presidential candidates would get just 1.2 per cent between them. Ruto maintains national lead, Raila gains in CentralNews3 weeks ago

The number of undecided voters dropped from 7.8 per cent in February to 3.7 per cent in March. Another 2.3 per cent of the respondents refused to answer, compared to 2.8 per cent in February.

Asked whom they thought will win the presidential contest, irrespective of whom they will vote for, 49.3 per cent said Raila, with 42 per cent saying Ruto.

The poll closed on the same day that Kalonzo Musyoka and his One Kenya Alliance brigade joined Azimio and declared ‘Raila Tosha’.

“I thought Raila would this time ’round say ‘Kalonzo Tosha’. But with a clean heart I say for a third time ‘Raila Tosha’,” Kalonzo declared to thunderous applause at the Jacaranda Stadium on Saturday, at an event attended by Uhuru. Politicians believe in opinion pollsOpinion3 weeks ago

Ruto still dominates Central with 57.2 per cent compared to 28.2 for Raila. Ruto also leads North Rift with 62.6 per cent compared to Raila’s 31.3, and South Rift, with 66.9 per cent compared to Raila’s 30.1 per cent.

The DP also leads in Upper Eastern  consisting of Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, Marsabit and Isiolo  by 57 per cent against Raila’s 38.8 per cent.

However, this latest poll shows that Raila would sweep the other regions. He would win Nyanza, Coast, Western, North Eastern, Lower Eastern and Nairobi.

In Nyanza, Raila leads with 78 per cent against Ruto’s 17 per cent. At the Coast, the poll showed 66 per cent support against Ruto’s 26 per cent. In Northeastern, Raila now has 70 per cent backing against Ruto’s 25 per cent.

Raila would also take Kalonzo’s Lower Eastern backyard with 48.7 per cent support, compared with Ruto on 29.8 per cent.

With the defection of ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi and his Ford Kenya counterpart Moses Wetang’ula to the Ruto camp, the battle for Western should be close but Raila still has a slight lead.

The poll shows that Raila would win Western with 47.6 per cent of the vote, against Ruto’s 43.6 per cent. Lawyer Ahmednasir: Without Mt Kenya deputy, Raila can’t pass 4m votesNews2 weeks ago

Although he is still trailing well behind Ruto in Central Kenya, Raila’s support there has pushed up marginally to 28.2 per cent from 27.0 in February after his endorsement by President Uhuru Kenyatta at Sagana State Lodge last month.

In Nairobi, Raila would get 54.4 per cent of the votes compared to 38.1 for Ruto. In Northeastern, Raila would get 70.0 per cent of the votes compared to 25.0 for Ruto. At the Coast, Raila would get 66.1 per cent of the votes, compared to 26.6 for Ruto.

The Radio Africa poll also shows that Ruto’s United Democratic Party remains the most popular, with 36 per cent of Kenyans preferring UDA compared to 25 per cent for ODM. Jubilee comes a distant third at five per cent while two percent cited Azimio La Umoja and Wiper.

Poll on popular political parties.
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Ruto and the youth vote

The poll also shows that Ruto is somewhat more popular among youthful voters while Raila appeals to the older generation. 51% per cent of voters between 18 and 24 would vote for Ruto, 41.2 % for Raila. 

Interestingly, 27 per cent of respondents refused to answer which political party they are closest to.

The poll also shows that Ruto is somewhat more popular among youthful voters while Raila appeals to the older generation.

For instance, 51 per cent of voters between the ages of 18 and 24 years said they would vote for Ruto against 41.2 per cent for Raila.

However, 49.8 per cent of those aged between 46 and 55 years said they would vote for Raila compared to 39.4 per cent for Ruto.

Nairobi Today News

Author: Alex

Alex is a Kenyan blogger writing on technology, fraud, social media and politics at Nairobi Today.

email:: admin[at]nairobitoday.co.ke

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